Breaking News: Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios
Only three times have there been seven, in 2015, 2017, and 2019, but even in those, one or more teams would have needed to pull an unlikely conference championship upset
. What stands out about this year’s field is that the seven teams playing this weekend are all reasonable picks to win their respective title games. It wouldn’t take much to unleash chaos.
Including what would arguably be the toughest decision the committee has ever faced: Alabama beating Georgia and the No. 4 seed coming down to a 13-0 Florida State team without its star quarterback or the 12-1 two-time defending national champs.
Even discarding the non-possibility of Iowa upsetting Michigan (you can throw this back in my face if the Hawkeyes pull off a 3-2 win), there are 16 possible combinations of results involving the ACC (Florida State-Louisville), Big 12 (Texas-Oklahoma State), Pac-12 (Washington-Oregon), and SEC (Georgia-Alabama) championship games. Below, I predict how the committee would rank the top five teams after each set of results.
For these purposes, I am predicting that Ohio State will be dropped by the committee on Tuesday from its current ranking of No. 2 to No. 5, following their 30–24 road loss to Michigan. This puts them behind the four unbeaten teams but ahead of the one-loss teams. However, I am aware that any of Oregon, Texas, or Alabama could pass the Buckeyes if they win this weekend.
