Our staff was a bit more split on the total of this game than the spread, but we still like the over.
These are two of the better offenses in college football. Georgia’s offense comes in at fourth in SP+, while Alabama ranks 13th.
However, the Crimson Tide have consistently improved on offense. A slow start resulted in a loss to Texas and Milroe getting benched against South Florida. But since Milroe’s return, he’s been among the most electric quarterbacks in the nation, carrying this Alabama offense.
Alabama ranks 37th in Success Rate, 13th in Explosiveness and 20th in Finishing Drives. The Tide has been equally strong both rushing and passing, allowing them to pick apart a defense’s weaknesses.
Georgia’s weakness is against the rush. The Bulldogs sit eighth in Pass Success Rate allowed but 56th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 65th in Rush PPA allowed.
The Bulldogs also haven’t prevented big plays, ranking 88th in Rush Explosiveness allowed. Meanwhile, Alabama has occasionally broken off big runs and ranks 47th in Rush Explosiveness.
Georgia’s defense has been excellent and overpowering for years. However, many doubted the offense after losing offensive coordinator Todd Monken and quarterback Stetson Bennett in the offseason.
New quarterback Carson Beck has answered the call, passing for 3,495 yards and 22 touchdowns in his first year as the starter.
Georgia ranks third in Pass Success Rate and 10th in Rush Success Rate, and the Bulldogs own ranks of ninth in Havoc allowed, fifth in Finishing Drives and third in Success Rate as well.
With Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey and future NFL tackle Amarius Mims now healthy, the Bulldogs’ offense is back to full strength.
Alabama’s defense is great, but if any team can piece together sustained drives against the Crimson Tide, it’s Georgia.
Our staff expects these two talented offenses to light up the scoreboard on Saturday afternoon, going over the 55-point total.
Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide travel to Atlanta as six-point underdogs against Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs.
This is not the exact rematch as years ago when Alabama was a seven-point underdog. The Georgia defense is not as talented.
The Crimson Tide’s improving offensive line should find some running room, and I anticipate Jalen Milroe will be more decisive when rolling out and running the ball than he was last week against Auburn. The Bulldogs rank 88th in Rush Explosiveness allowed, and the Tide can break off some big runs in this one.
Meanwhile, Alabama’s defense has been elite all year, especially in the season’s second half. The Tide rank seventh in Success Rate allowed, and they’ll look to neutralize a strong Georgia offensive line.
Carson Beck has been great when well-protected this year but only completes 51.2% of his passes under pressure, so look for Alabama defensive coordinator Kevin Steele to draw up some pressure looks behind Dallas Turner.
Between Alabama’s strong defense and Georgia’s relatively weaker one, at least compared to years prior, I expect a one-score game in Atlanta.
