Dan Campbell’s actions during the Detroit Lions’ NFC championship loss infuriated the NFL media.
The Detroit Lions’ 34-31 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship game on Sunday night served as a sobering reminder of the biblical proverb. The 49ers gained momentum in the second half, scoring 27 points in a row to cap a 17-point comeback, while the Lions, as they have done all season, chose to be aggressive and go for it on two dubious fourth downs.
ESPN statistics reporter Seth Walder claims that the numbers supported Campbell’s choices on both crucial fourth-down plays. He demonstrated how ESPN’s analytical model nearly agreed with Campbell, raising the Lions’ victory probability by 0.3%. The difference was small enough that the data might support either conclusion.
Following the game, Campbell stated he would tolerate the criticism and that he intended to be aggressive in an attempt to regain the momentum.
Ben Baldwin’s well-liked fourth down model more strongly indicated that going for it was the best play in both situations; by trying to convert in the fourth quarter, the Lions’ victory probability increased by 2%.
Although the Lions’ execution errors in the second half, which included three intercepted passes and a fumble that resulted in a 49ers touchdown to tie the game, also played a part in their downfall, the fourth downs were crucial. The 49ers offense kept marching down the field, and despite the defense’s outstanding performance in the first half, they were unable to stop Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey from making huge plays with both his legs and the air.
But as is customary in the NFL, the conversation that followed the game centered more on the head coach’s decisions than on any one play call. Reporters and analysts debated whether or not Campbell made the correct calls on his two fourth-down plays, as well as the run play near the goal line that lost the team a crucial timeout in the final minute.
On the subject, pundits were divided, with some fervently supporting Campbell and others harshly criticizing the choices:
JEFF SEIDEL: The Detroit Lions miss a tremendous opportunity that may not present themselves again for years.
Detroit News
Longtime Lions beat writer for the Free Press and Michigan sports writer of the year Dave Birkett delivered a nearly failing grade of D-plus to Campbell and the coaching staff for the second fourth down attempt, as well as running the ball with 1:05 left and having to use a timeout down 10. Birkett’s grades were part of his weekly postgame assessments evaluating how each position group and the coaching staff performed.
“I like Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness on fourth downs,” Birkett remarked. It’s ingrained in the Lions’ mindset and character. However, the Lions’ aggressiveness on fourth down on Sunday backfired as they missed crucial points that would have sealed a three-point loss when they were unable to convert two fourth downs from inside field goal range. Though the 49ers team was already suffering from a poor first half, I thought it was a good move to go for it on fourth-and-2 in the third quarter. Given the circumstances of the game, I would have tried the game-tying field goal on fourth-and-3 in the fourth quarter. Although Campbell’s judgments are supported by the data, the outcome undoubtedly damaged the Lions’ prospects of making it to the Super Bowl.
“Campbell and his staff deserve praise for coming up with a strong first-half strategy and getting the players prepared to carry it out. Ultimately, though, they were unable to halt their team’s collapse late in the game, and the timeout they took with 1:05 remaining after carrying the ball on a third-and-1 gave up any remaining hope of a comeback.”
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NBC Sports
In their postgame conversation, NBC’s Mike Florio and Chris Simms criticized Campbell for his “horrible” fourth down calls, disregarding the stats. They claimed that the Lions were guaranteed to lose the game and that the fourth-down calls robbed them of a chance to win.
Raising his voice, Simms stated, “You have control of the football game. The 49ers are doing things; they are trying to regain momentum and you help them do it.” “And after that, you naturally have the opportunity to tie the football match in the NFC title game, but you say, ‘No, we’re going to win it right here.'” And while you can’t win it there and then, you can lose it, which is precisely what happened with Dan Campbell and the Lions in the closing moments of the game.”
Monday’s morning broadcasts on ESPN discussed Campbell’s choice and the Lions’ defeat in great detail.
Former NFL defender Ryan Clark, former Lions quarterback Dan Orlovsky, and former NFL head coach Rex Ryan all defended the team’s aggressiveness and determination to keep the offense on the field on “Get Up,” but they pointed the finger of blame squarely at the team’s poor execution for the dismal outcome.
Orlovsky responded, “100% right decisions by Dan Campbell and I think anybody who disagrees doesn’t understand the Lions this year,” albeit conceding that the third-quarter collapse was a “disastrous collapse” and the Lions “choked.”
It’s appropriate for not just who they are, but also for who and how they were playing. Dan Campbell has done just that to help them win four or five games so far this season.”
In addition, he gave the San Francisco defense credit for playing well and placing the offense in difficult situations while the offense made uncharacteristic errors.
It’s a fact that San Francisco made the plays, but the plays are there to be made. Josh Reynolds drops the ball on fourth down, and on the following play, Aaron Armstead makes a play that forces Jared Goff out of the pocket. They have been like this for the entire year, therefore the choice was the appropriate one. You have to give San Francisco credit for creating them because they were controlling the game, and Detroit lost.
Ryan also gave San Francisco credit for perplexing Goff on the second fourth down attempt by hiding their coverage, which forced him to throw incomplete when pressure up the middle got the better of him.
“That last down, the only time Detroit never knew what defense San Francisco was in was on that play,” Ryan stated. “They had been shown man coverage before that. They were playing zone, but they had the back outside and he gestured back into the backfield. They were displaying man coverage. And to think, at last, they shown creativity. That eliminated it. They are aware of the defense, which is why they know they can go for it on fourth down.
