Despite rejecting the qualifying offer, Nola is still the Phillies’ top priority.
PHILADELPHIA — As expected, Aaron Nola rejected the Phillies’ qualifying offer before Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline, two sources told MLB.com.
He is still one of the most sought-after free agents in baseball.
Nola would have signed a one-year, $20.35 million contract for 2024 if he had accepted the Phillies’ offer.
Given that Nola is pursuing a lucrative multiyear contract that may exceed $200 million, it would have been an astonishing choice. For now, if Nola signs with another team, Philadelphia will receive a compensatory pick following the fourth round of the 2024 Draft.
It would be a small consolation prize for the Phils, who have said they hope to re-sign the right-hander.
The Phillies’ top priority is to keep Nola in Philadelphia, according to statements made late last month by Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations.
“We love him,” Dombrowski said. “He’s been tremendous for the franchise. He’s pitched very well for a number of years. He’s a Phillie.
Although we really hope to keep him, I believe that would be our top priority since we would have to find a replacement. We need to be in position where we have somebody else that will be a starting pitcher of quality in the rotation. So, yes, it’s either Aaron or somebody else.
Nola, 30, will have no shortage of suitors in free agency. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft. Baseball Reference ranks his 30.4 WAR from 2017–23 as the third best among pitchers, behind only Max Scherzer (37.0) and Gerrit Cole (32.3).
Over the last seven regular seasons, Nola has thrown 1,233 1/3 innings, second only to Cole’s 1,279 2/3.
Nola also ranks third in strikeouts (1,393) and seventh in wins (78) since 2017. Among pitchers with at least 60 starts in that same span, he is 12th in WHIP (1.11) and 11th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.31).
Although the Braves have recently been considered as a serious contender for Nola, it will be interesting to see if Atlanta is ready to place the highest bid.
Although Nola’s close relationship with Braves pitching coach Rick Kranitz (who was with the Phillies from 2016–18) and his Southern roots (he played college baseball at LSU and was born and raised in Baton Rouge, Louisiana) have been mentioned as positive factors in a potential Nola-Atlanta union, money almost always speaks loudest in free agency.
The Phillies have options to replace Nola if he signs with Atlanta, St. Louis, or any other team that needs a starting pitcher.
Given that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a free agent and more than five years younger than Nola, do not be shocked if they make a run at him.
In addition, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Marcus Stroman are among the other free-agent starters available.
This offseason, there is also a chance that Tyler Glasnow of Tampa Bay and Corbin Burnes of Milwaukee will be traded.