Preview and prediction for Ohio State vs. Minnesota football: Buckeyes will
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio State will play one more game at Ohio Stadium this season, on Saturday against Minnesota.
It’s the second-ranked Buckeyes’ last tuneup before playing third-ranked Michigan next weekend in Ann Arbor.
Last season, both teams played a close game the week before the rivalry: Michigan beat Illinois by two points, and Ohio State won at Maryland by 13, leading by just six with less than a minute left.
Ohio State needs to avoid that and build off its most complete game of the season in its 38-3 win over Michigan State last weekend. The Buckeyes are 27.5-point favorites against the Gophers.
Here are a few things to watch this week.
Parker Fleming takes responsibility for special teams mistakes
There aren’t many programs in the country that would put an assistant who has been widely criticized in front of the media for 10 minutes. Yet that’s the situation Fleming was in Wednesday, talking about the special teams mistakes this season.
There was the fake punt that Jesse Mirco ran against Rutgers, which wasn’t supposed to be a fake and gave Rutgers the ball in scoring position.
Then there was the fake punt that Michigan State made last weekend, a play that the majority of spectators in the stadium anticipated.
And against Penn State, Lorenzo Styles Jr. was hit by the ball on a punt, and Penn State recovered the fumble.
None of those mistakes cost Ohio State wins because it was the better team in each game, but as the end of the season nears, those things need to be cleaned up.
“We try to work and fight to cross all of those bridges before we get them,” said Fleming, in his seventh season at Ohio State.
“Clearly, we haven’t done a good enough job. … Any time something goes wrong, I look at myself and say, ‘Did I prepare us, did I prepare myself, did I coach it well enough?’ and when it doesn’t show up, then it’s no.”
Explaining some of the special teams miscues from this season, Fleming said the Mirco fake punt was a miscommunication.
“I can’t let that happen,” said Fleming, who is responsible for relaying the plays to the punt team. “All we want to do is put our team in the best position.”
As for the fake punt Michigan State converted, Fleming said the situation was different. Michigan State originally converted the third down, but it was ruled short on the review.
He claimed that the coaches were unsure if Michigan State would fake punt or go for it all out and that the Buckeyes failed to stop the run up the middle well enough.
“We have to be better prepared,” Fleming said.
Last year, Ohio State had two major special teams mistakes, one against Michigan and one against Georgia.
Both were fake punt calls by Ohio State, but the first one never happened because of a miscommunicated call that saw long snapper Mason Arnold snap the ball to Mirco instead of Mitch Rossi, who would’ve run for the first down.
Another fake punt attempt was made by Ohio State against Georgia, but the Bulldogs called a timeout. If not for the timeout, Ohio State would’ve been flagged for 12 players on the field.
At the buzzer to win the game, Noah Ruggles also missed a 50-yard field goal.
Fleming didn’t shy away from the idea that those mistakes played a part in Ohio State’s two losses.
That is one of those things where you feel like you have to cherry-pick certain parts of the past, which is legitimate; it is one of those situations where we are trying to push the boundaries and we need to improve,” he remarked.
I can’t say we’re going to be perfect. The truth is that nobody is here attempting to avoid performing, but we still consider and assess this on a regular basis. It’s heard.”
Defensive injuries are mounting
Ohio State can’t seem to get healthy. For much of the season, the offense was dealing with injuries to many starters. Now it finally has the starters back, while the defense is missing starters.
Lathan Ransom has been out since getting injured against Wisconsin, will not be back this week and likely will miss the Michigan game. Ryan Day said he could return this year if Ohio State makes it to the College Football Playoff.
Josh Proctor missed the last game after leaving the Rutgers win in the second half but is expected to play Saturday. That’s good news for the secondary, but Ohio State may be without linebacker Tommy Eichenberg, who has been week to week, and defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr., who remains a bit of an unknown. Day didn’t have an update this week, but Hall left the Michigan State game after playing just 10 snaps.
Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, and it doesn’t need all of its starters to beat Minnesota because there’s enough depth to fill those holes.
Expect Hall, if he doesn’t play, to be replaced by a mix of players. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has raved about Ty Hamilton’s play this year, although he has flown under the radar because of the success Tyleik Williams is having. Hero Kanu has made some nice plays this season, and Jaden McKenzie is improving. I expect we’ll see all three of them in spurts against Minnesota.
As for the linebacker position, Cody Simon and Steele Chambers will get most, if not all, of the reps there with Eichenberg out. C.J. Hicks is next in line if Simon or Chambers were to go down in the game.
One stat to watch — Minnesota’s fourth-down percentage
The Golden Gophers (5-5) don’t have a great team and are on the outside looking in at bowl eligibility entering the final two weeks of the season.
Still, Minnesota is the best team in the country when it comes to fourth-down conversion percentage. It has converted 12 of 14 fourth-down attempts (an 85.7 percent conversion rate). Only Georgia has the same percentage, but the Bulldogs have had only seven attempts.
Minnesota converted fourth-and-1 and fourth-and-2 plays against Michigan on the same drive. Both resulted in 5-yard runs from running back Bryce Williams.
Ohio State’s defense has faced 26 fourth-down attempts this season, and of teams that have faced 25 or more, the Buckeyes have the second-best stop rate, giving up a first down on just 38.46 percent of those plays.
Still, the Buckeyes will have to be focused at all times against the Golden Gophers, understanding they are fine extending drives as long as they want. Minnesota has the third-highest time of possession in the Big Ten, as well.
Prediction
Ohio State 35, Minnesota 7
I believe we will see a repeat of last week. Ohio State gets up big, gives the starters one drive in the third quarter and gets them out of there healthy.
The Golden Gophers have a good rushing team and will attempt to play the game at their pace, keeping the ball out of Ohio State’s hands. I expect Ohio State to focus on stopping the run and then get after sophomore quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis.
The key for Ohio State’s offense will be ball security. Minnesota has forced 11 interceptions this season, with eight coming against Power 5 opponents.