Given that neither team is in the best of health or shape going into the game—both have suffered losses and casualties recently—the outcome is even more unexpected and thrilling.

Although Arsenal lost in Lens last week, the sight of Bukayo Saka staggering off the field with what seemed to be a hamstring injury was far more concerning .Mikel Arteta claimed he had no remorse about selecting his star forward despite the fact that he was still recovering from injuries from earlier games and was unable to play in the previous two.

Kai Havertz, who continues to seem like a peculiar addition and is simply unsuited to what is expected to be a high-intensity contest, will almost surely be replaced by Thomas Partey, who returned to the matchday squad in France and will likely come into the lineup to bolster the Arsenal midfield.

Given the absence of City’s best two players in that position, Kevin De Bruyne (injured in the first league game of the season) and Rodri (suspended after receiving a red card against Nottingham Forest), the midfield, which is now being controlled by their de facto captain Declan Rice, could make the difference for Arsenal.

Rodri is perhaps City’s most crucial player, even if Erling Haaland and KDB may lay claim to being the team’s finest players overall. There is no one else in Pep Guardiola’s roster who is as steady and trustworthy as he is, and since they have so many offensive alternatives, they never have a problem scoring goals.

In the 3-1 victory against Leipzig, Pep once again pulled an unusual formation and setup from his bag, and it looks like control will be the key to Sunday’s game. With Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva up front, who will provide outlets and ball retention, John Stones and Mateo Kovacic will likely form the foundation of the midfield.

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With their victory in Germany, City snapped a very uncommon losing run that saw them lose at Wolves and tumble out of the Carabao Cup against Newcastle. The match between Abu Dhabi and Red Bull was another depressing example of what sport has devolved into. The hook Matheus Nunes made at halftime and his performance against the team he went on strike to get rid of this summer should provide some indication of his position this weekend in North London.

The league as a whole, but especially at Arsenal, who found themselves four points out after just six games, breathed a collective sigh of relief following that defeat at Molineux. With City’s tendency to build into seasons after starting out rather slowly, it seemed even more foreboding.

The Invincibles (the 2003–04 Gunners and the 1888–89 Preston North End squads) are still in the running for another season, but a victory on Sunday is crucial for two key reasons if Arsenal is to end their 20-year title drought since that Wenger/Henry dream side.

As previously said, City develop over the course of seasons, and the only club to defeat them in the last six years—Liverpool—had to transform into a pure winning machine in order to finally defeat them—and by an astounding margin, it must be emphasized.

While it may seem impossible for a team to win practically every game, Arsenal came close in the first half of the previous season, winning 16 of their first 19 games and losing only seven points.Everyone is aware of what transpired during the run-in, but nobody can allow City to continue forward with any semblance of a hope to reel them in come spring.

With 12 fewer games played this season, the Gunners have already surpassed that total by three points, but conceding four goals in home draws against Fulham and Tottenham is hardly the stamp of a winner. They must grab and then expand on the opportunity the city has provided them.

In addition to the obvious considerations of league standings and point totals, belief is the second main factor driving Arsenal’s absolute necessity for victory on Sunday.

Arsenal hasn’t defeated City in the league since December 2015, the year before Pep took over. Since then, in 14 league encounters, Guardiola has won 13 and drew one, which is incredibly and humiliating for the Gunners.

Mikel Arteta, the manager of Arsenal, appears smug.

Sure, there have been two FA Cup semi-final victories and a Community Shield penalty shootout triumph this year, but none of those cup victories—specifically, the 2020 version that helped Arteta win his only trophy as manager to date—made a difference in league games.

Additionally, you shouldn’t make too much of the season’s customary opener, which these days is considered a semi-friendly; after all, eventual winners City dropped the previous two to Liverpool and Leicester.

Conflicts from the previous season demonstrated the divide between the teams when it mattered most. The 3-1 victory for City at the Emirates marked the first home league loss for Arsenal this season, which initially caused some concern (which was later allayed); the 4-1 victory at the Etihad just established the title’s final destination once the wheels finally came off.

The idea that Arteta is still Guardiola’s student/padawan and is unable to truly overthrow him (without breaking all types of FFP rules; those 115 charges must grate the Gunners like everyone else in the league) would be further supported by another loss this weekend. Last season was the best opportunity Arsenal would ever have to win a league title against this City team.

Jamie Carragher most recently said that Arsenal are overly sentimental and approach every game like a final, but if there was ever a time to feel that way, it will be this Sunday at the Emirates.

Win, and both the Gunners and the other pretenders’ hope and belief will only increase. If you lose, the anxiety around a subsequent procession will grow alarmingly. It’s time for Arteta and his Arsenal team to take the initiative and speak out.

What are the odds of a draw after all of this?