Georgia vs. Florida State prediction, preview

2023 Orange Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Georgia -19.5
Total: 44.5 points
Moneyline: UGA -1613 | FSU +650
FPI pick: Georgia 60.7% to win

What to watch for

1. Who’s left? The story of Florida State’s bowl season is all the opt-outs, an expected 11 starters in all, including five defensively. Third-string quarterback Brock Glenn steps in, limited on experience, but working behind an offensive line that remains intact.

He went 8 of 21 in the ACC title game and is missing a plethora of receiving targets, but the Seminoles have credible depth at WR, enough to marginally challenge Georgia’s superb perimeter defenders, and Glenn has shown he can run the ball, too. But in all, Florida State lost 86 percent of its total yardage from this season and 80 percent of its touchdowns.

2. Third down. Georgia is 1 of 2 teams nationally that ranks top 10 in both scoring offense and defense, but one of the critical strengths of the team on both sides of the ball is third down play. The Bulldogs are No. 1 on defense, allowing opponents to convert on 26.4 percent of chances, and are No. 2 on offense, moving the chains on 54.8 percent of opportunities.

Florida State is 80th on the money down offensively, with 36 percent conversion success, but 3rd on defense (27.4%), and despite its losses on defense, the unit still retains more of its production than the offense does.

3. Georgia can move. While defense has helped build Georgia’s recent mini-dynasty — and the unit is still strong, ranking 10th nationally — the Bulldogs remain a potent threat moving the ball themselves. Carson Beck ranked 7th in quarterback rating this season while compiling 22 touchdowns and 6 interceptions and commands a unit that is 10th in passing production.

But the Dawgs can run, too: backs Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards combined for 23 touchdowns and over 1,5