Rohit Ponnaiya
Last Updated: Dec 29, 2023 8:12 AM ETRead Time: 4 min

Week 17 in the NFL features a marquee matchup on Saturday night between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys.

With just two weeks remaining, first place in the NFC is up for grabs between four teams with the 11-4 Lions and 10-5 Cowboys jockeying for position. And with both teams heavily benefitting from home-field advantage this season, finishing as high as possible in the standings is crucial.

NFL odds opened with the Cowboys as 6-point home favorites and the Over/Under at 53.5 for this clash. Here are my best free NFL picks for the Lions vs. Cowboys on December 30.

Lions vs Cowboys predictions
On the surface, this seems like a fishy line with the Dallas Cowboys sitting as just under touchdown favorites despite having one fewer win than Detroit and sitting just one spot ahead in total DVOA. The Cowboys also have just three wins against teams .500 or better (with two of those coming against wildly inconsistent 8-7 Rams and Seahawks sides) and their other seven victories came against squads that are a combined 29-76.

However, while they’re coming off back-to-back losses, those came on the road against the Dolphins and Bills. Now they’re back in Dallas where they’ve been nothing short of dominant, going a perfect 7-0 with an an average scoring margin of +24.4 points per game. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are in an emotional letdown spot after clinching their first division title in 30 years and could be fatigued with this being their fourth game on the road this month.

The Lions are coming off a 30-24 win where they heavily benefitted from Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens throwing four interceptions on a staggering seven turnover-worthy plays. However, they also allowed Mullens to complete 22 of 36 passes for 411 yards.

If they let a career backup like Mullens torch them, there’s no telling what Dak Prescott might do. The Cowboys QB is fifth in the league in passing yards (3,892) third in passer rating (104.2) and has far better ball security with seven INTs this season (only two picks in seven home contests).

Prescott also has an NFL-best passing grade of 71.9 under pressure per PFF while boasting a staggering passer rating of 130.2 on passes 20+ yards downfield — the third-best mark in the league. That’s bad news for a Detroit defense that generates a decent amount of pressure but seldom gets sacks and that gets burned deep far too often.

After putting up some solid but inflated analytics at the start of the season, Detroit’s defense has fallen off over the last two months. Since Week 7, the Lions are 26th in the league in defensive EPA while ranking 32nd in defensive dropback EPA. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are averaging an incredible 39.9 ppg at home this season and have scored at least 30 points in all seven of those contests.

With the Lions secondary getting lit up and Dallas dominating at home, it’s tough to see an outcome where the underdogs pull off the upset. However, it’s also not easy to eat this much chalk given how close these teams are in the standings. Especially with the Cowboys stop unit also showing cracks, ranking just 29th in the league in defensive success rate and 31st in defensive rush success rate since Week 7.

Thankfully, FanDuel has winning margin bets available, and backing the Cowboys to win by less than two touchdowns is paying out at plus money.

My best bet: Winning margin: Cowboys by 1-13 points (+115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Although we can’t play our winning margin best bet in an SGP, I’m also confident in the Cowboys going Over their team total.

Prescott has been terrific at home, completing 74% of his passes for 303.6 passing yards per game with 8.5 yards per attempt. What’s even more impressive about that number is that in several of those home contests, the Cowboys dialed back their passing in the second half due to massive leads. He’ll likely air it out against a Lions defense that is 25th in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.0) with that number rising to 7.7 on the road.

The Lions play man coverage at the 12th-highest rate in the league. Lamb has done an incredible job against man coverage, seeing his target rate rise from an already-high 24.7% in zone to 33.9% in man while posting the best receiving grade (93.2) in the league per PFF.

This is a high receiving number but Lamb is averaging a whopping 12.1 targets per game since the Cowboys bye in Week 7 and Prescott will look his way often against a Lions secondary that has been getting burned by No. 1 receivers.