They can’t forget to thank Bailey Zappe and the New England Patriots, either. the Cardinals (3-12) in the race for the NFL’s worst record, and the Bears own Carolina’s pick thanks to their March trade.

It’s actually larger than a one-game lead for the Panthers/Bears heading into the final two games. Essentially, it appears the only way Carolina is going to fall out of the first position would be to beat both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, teams currently leading their divisions.

The Cardinals are only one game back or ahead, whatever way you look at it, but at 3-12, they’re too far back in a tiebreaker to ever beat Carolina if they tie.

The tiebreaker is the strength of the schedule. The 522 winning percentage is far better than Arizona’s .563.

New England had been tied with Arizona, only one game back of the top spot in the draft, but fell off the pace when Zappe kept the Patriots from having a better shot at finding someone to take his and Mac Jones’ jobs away by leading a 26-23 win over Denver on Christmas Eve.

Now New England and Washington are 4-11 and both have a chance to beat the tiebreaker, but they’re two games back and would be eliminated with one Carolina loss or with one more win of their own. The Commanders close with the 49ers and Cowboys, while the Patriots finish with Buffalo and the Jets.

The Bears did severe harm to their own pick in the first round with their third win in four games. At 6-9, they are now tied for the eighth overall pick but own a tiebreaker edge over the 6-9 Jets.