The long-running tactical war between Stefano Pioli and Simone Inzaghi will be played out once again in the opening derby of the season on Saturday night between AC Milan and Inter.
It must be acknowledged that, thus far in 2023, Inzaghi has outperformed his rival, and in a very commanding manner. 3-0 (in the Supercoppa), 1-0 (in the rematch in the league), 2-0 and 1-0 (in the two legs of the Champions League semi-finals) are the scores of Inter’s victories in the past four meetings between the two teams.
Therefore, Pioli needs to show that his Milan team is capable of not only competing in this game but also winning it, which is essentially a requirement if there is to be a Scudetto effort.
Today, an analysis from La Gazzetta dello Sport has gone through some of the battles that will take place across the pitch and some of the tactical intricacies we can expect to see.
Mkhitaryan vs. Krunic
Inter must look to press high if they are to stop Milan’s build-up play, something which appeared to be a real strength in the first three matches of the season.
In doing so, the Nerazzurri would be to take away options and passing lanes from the players involved in trying to build out from the back. Then, when winning the ball back higher up the field, they can target the flanks where there will often be an extra man.
The first point is the key one in the non-possession phase: Milan don’t have a real Regista, i.e. a defensive midfielder used to dribbling under pressure. Krunic is more of a balancer; a last barrier to protect the defence.
If Inter can pressure Milan into giving the ball to the Bosnian and then pressing him with a midfielder (Barella or Mkhitaryan, with the Armenian more suited to working between the lines even in the possession phase) and push the wing-backs up close to the Rossoneri full-backs to avoid an easy out ball, it would force Milan to risk more.
Stealing the ball 30 metres from the Rossoneri’s goal will be the mission for Inter, to quickly reverse the play and find more spaces in behind and one-on-one with the central defenders.
Of course it is easier to say than to do, but Mkhitaryan is a specialist in high pressing and making runs without the ball. The Armenian could be the tipping point of the match, just like in the first leg of the semi-final back in May.
He is functional and lethal, which is how he became an untouchable for Inzaghi, and he will aim to repeat his performance from the Champions League tie.
Dumfries x Dimarco
The ideal end to an attack for any coach who uses the 3-5-2 formation is for the move to conclude with one wing-back setting up the other, which is what Inter often manage to do.
Above all, they do so by using Federico Dimarco’s left foot for the cross and taking advantage of Denzel Dumfries’ ability in the air on the opposite side, be it for a knock-back to one of his team-mates or for a shot himself.
Heading into the derby, this will not just be something the Nerazzurri aim to exploit once or twice, but rather it will be a mission for the entire 90 minutes: to to exploit the numerical superiority that will be created on the flanks.
Nicolo Barella will be ready to overlap Dumfries on the right and will Mkhitaryan be able to do the same with Dimarco on the left. It will be a continuous two-against-one to drag Calabria and Theo Hernandez into the middle and to limit the extent to which both full-backs of Milan are able to focus on their own build-up play.
There will certainly be sparks between Theo and Dumfries, as the recent history of derbies tells us, and this time Inzaghi aims to push even more in that direction, taking advantage of the Dutchman’s magical form.
With one goal and one assist in three league games and four assists in two games with the Netherlands, for whom he has established himself as a key player, the former PSV Eindhoven player has had a very successful start to this season.
The statistics provide an even clearer explanation: from 2022 to the present, only Dumfries has earned nine assists for a European national team. Inzaghi’s work, which he is still imparting to Denzel from the bench now, was essential to his development.
With Dimarco, who had 4 goals and 10 assists in all competitions last season and 2 so far this season, Inter are also moving quickly on the left. When Milan attacks, they will be forced to expose themselves on one side which will be dangerous.
Calhanoglu vs. Reijnders
Back in September 2022, Charles De Ketelaere was replaced by Marcelo Brozovic, who sprinted through on goal and got a through pass, which he buried past Mike Maignan to make it 1-0.
That was a terrible goal for Milan to concede, first because Pioli had undoubtedly spent time working on it over the week at Milanello, and secondly because the entire play tested Milan’s man-marking capabilities.
De Ketelaere and Brozovic have moved on, but Pioli still has a decision to make. Hakan Calhanoglu has taken over Brozovic’s responsibilities in a deeper-lying midfield role, and Milan, who no longer deploy an offensive midfielder, must decide how to contain him.
Olivier Giroud will try to take away Inter’s simple passing lanes towards Calhanoglu, and one of the two mezzali will have to closely monitor his movement, giving the responsibility to Tijjani Reijnders or Ruben Loftus-Cheek.
So far, in games against Bologna, Torino, and Roma, the Dutchman and the Englishman have alternated defensive duties. One is an offensive midfielder, while the other is closer to Rade Krunic, and vice versa.
They were practically flawless in their first month of competitive activity with Milan, but the challenge factor will grow this weekend in the derby.
Reijnders may rush to attack Calhanoglu, but as he is not as accustomed to playing man-on-man as his colleagues, his focus will be put to the test.
There is no time to be distracted when Barella and Mkhitaryan are involved, or when Frattesi enters the game, who will almost probably do so in the second half.
Calabria, Pulisic, Theo and Leao
Milan has prioritized the flanks in both their summer mercato and their first three league games, but they are far from symmetrical.
It was a one-way roadway on the right wing. Davide Calabria was a constant inside the pitch, more as an extra midfielder than a full-back, appearing opposite Krunic to assist in both phases.
The Milan captain was a midfielder at times during his youth career, so he gave the impression of being able to help the squad become more effective in build-up play in the middle of the pitch.
On the other hand, Theo Hernandez is a ‘double arrow’ on the left, because the Frenchman is free to evaluate circumstances and move accordingly. He may make the similar move as Calabria towards the center, which is especially effective if he is being tracked by a winger, or he can stay wide on the left, as he has done frequently.
In principle, he can inflict more harm if he is man-marked or shadowed by a midfielder. The difficulty for opponents is finding counter-moves in every action because Theo changes his choice minute by minute, so often there is no time to adapt.
Why has Pioli been acting in this manner since July? To deliver the ball to Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao faster, rather than losing time on the typical ball movement from centre-back to full-back, then from full-back to winger.
Milan has superiority in the middle of the field by playing this way; they expose themselves to risks on the counter, but they can have more players in the area where the ball is to press fast and then re-attack rapidly in transition.
All of this lends the derby a new meaning in Calabria. Calabria struggled, made blunders, and lost the battle against Dimarco, who plays on the same wing as him and was pivotal more than once in the derby in 2023.
