Marcell Ozuna had a breakout season and now has enough worth to be transferred if it still makes sense, although the Atlanta Braves were unable to trade him away during the previous summer.
The Atlanta Braves were unable to trade Marcell Ozuna during the previous offseason, but following a successful season, he now has enough worth to be transferred, if it still makes sense.
Baseball is a sport where things can change so quickly.
Ozuna went from having one of the worst baseball contracts—so bad that the Braves considered trading him for even worse deals, like that of Madison Bumgarner and Patrick Corbin—to a guy who ought to have taken home the Silver Slugger award as a designated hitter.
Ozuna was a negative WAR player on the field in 2021 (-0.1) and 2022 (-0.8) and considerably worse off the field.
Many, including me, were unsure about how long the Braves would commit to him before cutting their losses in 2023.
His 091 season-opening performance in April only served to heighten those conversations.
To Brian Snitker’s credit, though, he was convinced that Ozuna would make a change during spring training because he saw something in him. Players adore Snitker because, well, he always has faith in them.
This sentiment was validated, though, as Ozuna crushed.297/.366/.603 with a 156 wRC+ the remainder of the way after April.
All of a sudden, the narrative has changed, and instead of looking like one of the worst players in baseball, he’s considered one of the best DH hitters in the game.
Should the Braves still trade Him?
Would the team be open to moving him now that he’s an asset if they were so eager to get rid of him earlier?And given his difficult past off the field, how much is he worth to other teams even after a fantastic season?
He is practically a DH-only player who will play at age 33 next season for $18 million. He also has a $16 million team option for 2025 with a $1 million buyout.
At $18 million, there can’t be too many teams in the market for a rental DH.
Assuming that a team in dire need of offensive production is ready to take on Ozuna’s whole deal, what could the Braves obtain in exchange?
Once more, even after such a successful year, his value is probably not particularly high.other teams.
The Braves should likely expect either a back-of-the-rotation starter, veteran reliever, or lottery ticket prospect in return, especially if the team acquiring Ozuna is picking up the entire contract.
Even if the Braves kicked in some money, it’s hard to see a return much more than that.
Working on Something Bigger
Ozuna’s departure would also aim to free up funds for an alternative acquisition—a starting pitcher, for example.
There would certainly be room for 2024 if $18 million was moved; if that’s the plan, it would even allow them to escape the luxury tax.
Trading Ozuna leaves a big hole in your lineup, but the Braves might be the only team in baseball that can make it without a 40-home run hitter.
Then, in an attempt to fill that hole for less money, you might try to bring back Joc Pederson or Jorge Soler.
Nevertheless, it defies logic to attempt to close a gap by opening up new ones.
Additionally, one would think that the Braves are in a position where they can stop losing money in order to spend.
Worried About the Regression
Before everything changed, Ozuna was a horrible hitter for more than two years. Are the Braves confident that he will turn around, or are they concerned that he may regress?
The projected statistics for Ozuna in 2023 would give you the impression that the output was legitimate.
– xBA:.283
xSLG: 0.581
– xWOBA:.396
HardHit%: 49
Mean Exit Speed: 91.8 mph
– BABIP =.293
Both the walk and strikeout rates were comparable to earlier in his career.
Ozuna’s ability to stay in the lineup till 2023 was one of his most remarkable feats.Ozuna has always had power, but he had turned into a boom-or-bust player who offered nothing in the way of stability.
However, during the previous season, you saw see him reduce his swing and opt for a simple single instead.
His opposite field percentage in 2023 was 28.1 percent, the best of his career since 2015, which makes that pretty clear. It was 23.2 and 21 percent the prior two seasons with the Braves.
This means that in 2023, despite the lack of power, Ozuna continued to make contributions at the plate, which was a major grievance from the previous two years.
All of that suggests that Ozuna’s comeback was genuine and that he could do it once more.
The Braves should only trade Ozuna at this time if they need to make room in their budget for a different transaction. Ozuna’s trading value isn’t high enough to provide you a significant return, and the stats indicate that the production in 2023 wasn’t an anomaly.
