I had a 3-1-1 week on my best bets. So close to a perfect 5-0 week, except the Seattle Seahawks gave up a miracle touchdown to the Washington Commanders with 52 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, and the Detroit Lions defense had a tough time stopping anything. Yes, Dan Campbell’s offense looks elite, but why are we ignoring how the defense continues to give up huge plays?

I will always be honest with you in this column. This week is gross. There are several huge numbers that are surprising, but at the same time, you’ll find yourself hesitant to take the dog.

At least we have a great start to the week with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night, and then a Super Bowl rematch on Monday night with the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 22-25-3
Overall ATS record: 63-82-5
Straight up record: 84-66

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-13)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I’m going to try not to think too hard about this. The Dolphins are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season, AND 3-0 ATS as double-digit favorites under Mike McDaniel.

The Dolphins are also coming off of their bye week while the Raiders are on the road. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following its bye week.

If you take away the Dolphins’ absurd 50-point victory against the Denver Broncos earlier this year, Miami is still winning its home games by an average of 16.6 points.

The pick: Dolphins -13
Projected score: Dolphins 35-13

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Brandon Staley is on the hot seat. Why? Well, the defensive-minded head coach has the second-worst defense in the league statistically.

Last week’s loss to the Lions was the PERFECT example of a “Justin Herbert game.” The star quarterback threw four touchdowns, one interception, put up 38 total points and still lost.

However, I’m taking the Chargers to rebound in Lambeau on Sunday.

Herbert had his best performance in weeks vs. Detroit, which was good to see considering he was coming off of a terrible outing against the New York Jets the week prior.

His 323 passing yards last Sunday ranked second for him on the season, his four passing touchdowns marked a season-high and then the 38 points scored was a season-high for the Chargers as well.

The Packers on the other hand have lost five out of their past six games — the lone victory coming against the Los Angeles Rams, who were starting a backup quarterback.

Green Bay averages 19.9 points per game, while Los Angeles averages 26.6 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NFL. Put simply, I think the Chargers can out-score the Packers. L.A. is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. NFC opponents, and 9-4 ATS on the road since 2022. That’s tied for the best road ATS record in that span.

The pick: Chargers -3
Projected score: Chargers 21-17

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-8)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Justin Fields is returning to the lineup for Chicago. I believe he’s the better quarterback compared to Tyson Bagent, but how will he fare gripping the ball with that injured thumb? Could he be rusty after missing four games?

This is another case where I think the Lions can just straight-up outscore the Bears offense.

Detroit has covered in 11 straight divisional games! That’s tied for the longest streak by any NFL team since the merger.  As for the Bears, they have covered the number just once in their last 12 divisional games. The last time these two teams played, Detroit won by 31 points.

The pick: Lions -8
Projected score: Lions 30-20

Two struggling AFC East teams face off in Buffalo this week. I’ll take the home favorite with revenge on the mind. Remember, the Jets beat the Bills in overtime in the season opener.

New York had a players-only meeting this week to voice frustrations internally, while the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after a gross showing vs. Denver. Which squad is going to come together, and which one will further fall apart?

The Bills offense has turnover issues and Josh Allen needs to get Stefon Diggs the ball more often, but Buffalo is still top eight in the league in scoring. The Jets’ scoring offense on the other hand ranks in the bottom three, and their issues are more serious. The Jets have gone 11 quarters, 36 offensive drives and 186 plays from scrimmage without scoring a touchdown. Yikes.

The 5-5 Bills are 4-1 in Buffalo this season, and are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games following back-to-back losses. This is not a small number, but I don’t have any faith in the Jets.

The pick: Bills -7
Projected score: Bills 24-14

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)

Super Bowl rematch be damned. The real story in Kansas City on Monday night is that two powerful families will meet for the first time.

Entertainment Tonight reports Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are introducing their families to each other at this game, so the Chiefs will win by a million. Kansas City, of course, is undefeated when Swift is in attendance.

This is the ninth-ever Super Bowl rematch in what is the following season. The Super Bowl winner has won six of the eight matchups.

The Chiefs are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this season. The Eagles, who are coming off of their bye, are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following the bye week.

I’m not going to say the Eagles have been “bad” on the road, but they haven’t been incredible either.

They didn’t cover the spread against the Commanders in their last road matchup, and lost to the Jets in the second-to-last game away from Philly. I’ll take the Chiefs at home with the number this low.

The pick: Chiefs -2.5
Projected score: Chiefs 27-24

Other Week 11 picks

Ravens (-3.5) 26-20 over Bengals
Steelers (+1) 13-10 over Browns
Cowboys 27-17 over Panthers (+10.5)
Texans 23-21 over Cardinals (+5)
Commanders (-9) 24-13 over Giants
Jaguars 22-21 over Titans (+7)
49ers (-11.5) 28-14 over Buccaneers
Rams (+1) 24-21 over Seahawks
Broncos (-2.5) 23-20 over Vikings