Dan Campbell shocked Detroit Lions fans on social media and perhaps at the Ford Field watch party when he decided to try a fourth-down conversion rather than a field goal twice during Sunday’s NFC Championship game against the San Francisco 49ers.
But Kyle Shanahan wasn’t taken aback. He was actually ready for the game the week before.
Shanahan remarked, “I guess that’s how they’ve done it most of the year.” That, in my opinion, is one of the reasons they came. You win a lot of games, after all, with some of those choices. You make some choices, and you come to regret them. It’s not always like that, in my opinion. The game has a number of plays that take place. We are all required to make that choice.”
The Lions were confronted with a critical 4th-and-2 situation on San Francisco’s 28-yard line with 7:03 remaining in the third quarter. Lions quarterback Jared Goff went for it instead of attempting a 45-yard field goal, and he found Josh Reynolds, but the pass was dropped. If the field goal had gone in, the Lions would have led 27–10. On the following drive, the 49ers answered with a touchdown.
With 7:38 remaining in the fourth quarter and a 27-24 deficit, the Lions were forced to face another 4th-and-2 on San Francisco’s 30-yard line. Goff decided to try again but was unable to establish a connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown. In this case, the Lions would have had a 47-yard field goal if they had chosen to kick.
After the game, 49ers defensive lineman Nick Bosa told a reporter, “That absolutely bit ’em in the butt.” Going all in on 4th down a lot seems like it will come back to bite you.
The Lions were 18 for 21 (86%) on 4th-and-3 or less when in their opponent’s territory going into this game. Given this, it makes sense that Campbell decided against kicking a field goal in this scenario and instead trusted Goff to make a play.
Michael Badgley, the kicker for the Lions, is the other factor. Badgley is 56-for-58 (96.5%) from 20 to 39 yards, which is about as routine as it gets. It’s safe to assume that this had some influence on Campbell’s decision to kick the 21-yard field goal at the conclusion of the first half rather than attempt a fourth-and-three from San Francisco’s three-yard line.
But throughout his career, Badgley is 37-for-48 (77%) in kicks from 40–49 yards. More importantly, Badgley is 5-for-13 (38%) on kicks that are 50 yards or longer. In other words, the evidence favors Campbell’s decision to go for it rather than kick a field goal in 4th-and-short scenarios.
Shanahan remarked, “I mean, you live and die with that stuff.” “If they had also adjusted the chains on the fourth and second, it would have been quite difficult to handle, so…For this reason, everything boils down to specific plays. You have to accept the events in those plays as true.”
